AGP Executive Report

Warm Homes Plan: Paragon Bank’s boss says Labour’s £15bn “warm homes” rollout lacks “capacity”, warning the market can’t upgrade ~1,500 homes a day to hit 2030 targets. Labour Market Outlook: The British Chambers of Commerce warns unemployment could rise by 400,000+ to around 2m by the end of Labour’s first term, with weak investment and higher inflation. Fuel Prices Watch: The CMA says drivers may still be paying more than they should as fuel margins stay historically high, and it will keep pressure on retailers to pass wholesale drops through. EV Charging Red Tape: England has scrapped planning permission for many EV chargers, aiming to speed up chargepoint growth for drivers and businesses. UK-Ghana Growth Deal: The UK and Ghana signed a £215m Growth Partnership for 2026–2028, including a £101m UK-backed Takoradi ship repair/dry-docking project. Northern Ireland Business: Siemens Energy is buying Lisburn’s Camlin Group, boosting its sensor and grid-intelligence push. Airport Fees Backlash: Norwich Airport raised drop-off fees to £8 for 20 minutes, sparking passenger and taxi complaints. Cyber Security: ManageEngine survey finds AI-powered attacks are the top UK risk and most firms have suffered incidents in the past year.

UK youth jobs crisis: Unemployment among 16-24s hit 16.2% (729,000) in Jan–Mar 2026, with NEET numbers around one million as retail, hospitality and entry-level hiring slow. Industrial relations shake-up: The Employment Rights Act 2025 brings a new statutory right for trade unions to access workplaces, plus easier recognition and industrial action rules—raising the stakes for HR and employers. Cost squeeze for manufacturers: UK factory selling prices rose fastest in nearly four years as the Iran war lifts input costs and disrupts supply chains, with energy, chemicals, metals and packaging all feeding inflation. Public pay watch: The Bank of England is monitoring public-sector wage growth after it ran faster than private pay, potentially feeding inflation. Brexit trade friction easing: The UK and EU are moving toward dropping some border paperwork for animal products, plants and wood packaging—aimed at cutting delays and costs for food firms. Retail distress: Leading Labels has entered liquidation and confirmed 15 store closures. EU/UK politics: A Treasury minister said UK re-entry to the EU is “an inevitability”. Driving rules: DVSA updates MOT and practical test rules from June, including tighter rescheduling limits for provisional licence holders.

UK Manufacturing: S&P Global’s UK manufacturing PMI rose to 53.9 in May, a four-year high, but firms warned the upturn may fade as customers front-load orders to dodge war-related price and supply shocks. Energy & Supply Chains: A Reuters report says the Iran war hit European factories hardest, lifting raw material costs at the fastest pace in four years, while Asian peers expanded via stockpiling. Renewables Deal: Drax agreed to buy Bluefield Solar Income Fund in a £548m cash deal, taking on ~900MW of solar and wind plus a 2.9GW pipeline. Transport Rules: DVSA confirmed four MOT changes from June, including moving some electric vans to lighter Class 7 testing rules to cut fleet hurdles. Tax Compliance: HMRC confirmed £200 fines from August for missed Making Tax Digital quarterly deadlines, with sole traders warned they may not fully understand the new system. Youth Jobs Pressure: Pub bosses say Labour’s employer NIC and wage policy hikes are worsening the youth unemployment crisis, adding thousands to the cost of hiring young workers. Business Tech: Expereo/IDC-style findings highlight AI spending driven by fear of missing out, with many projects underperforming on ROI and data quality. Finance & Trade: UK customs is rolling out a digital ATA Carnet from 1 June to speed temporary goods movements, with the EU, Norway, Switzerland and the UK leading. Corporate Moves: Onecom Partners launched a Vodafone Business broadband partnership for resellers. Markets: FTSE 100 slipped into the red as investors digest the latest signals.

Youth Jobs Crisis: A government-commissioned review led by Alan Milburn warns the UK is at risk of a “lost generation”, with NEETs (16-24 not in education, employment or training) topping one million in Q1 and potentially rising to 1.25m within five years. Defence Procurement: Ministers are drawing up an “offset” policy that would force foreign defence contractors to create British jobs and invest in UK supply chains to win lucrative contracts. Business Rates Reform: Grassroots music venues are urging Rachel Reeves to back a hybrid business rates model, proposing a small levy on online sales to fund cuts for physical venues. Food Costs Pressure: The owner of Britain’s cheapest chip shop says he’s been forced to raise prices after rising costs, blaming government policy for squeezing margins. International Trade: India-Oman’s CEPA takes effect from June 1, expanding zero-duty access for labour-intensive exports and services. Security of Undersea Cables: The US, UK and Australia plan unmanned undersea vehicles under AUKUS to protect critical seabed cables from sabotage.

AUKUS Undersea Drones: The UK, US and Australia have agreed a first AUKUS Pillar 2 project to develop advanced uncrewed underwater vehicle payloads, with delivery starting in 2027—aimed at protecting maritime operations and critical subsea infrastructure. Sanctions Crackdown: The UK has targeted 18 crypto platforms and financial networks linked to Russia’s war financing, ordering firms to freeze assets and transactions tied to sanctioned entities. Cost Pressure on UK Firms: Business and households are being squeezed by rising prices linked to the Middle East conflict, with firms cutting investment and hiring as retail sales weaken and energy/shipping costs bite. Youth Unemployment Push: Former M&S boss Marc Bolland has been appointed to help the DWP tackle the “lost generation” risk, as the number of young people not in work or training remains alarmingly high. Energy & Industry Row: Ed Miliband’s net zero approach is being attacked by UK aluminium bosses as driving up energy costs and harming competitiveness. High Street Fallout: More closures hit local communities, including an M&S store shutting in Swansea and a Bath coffee shop blaming business rates and VAT. Bank Branch Closures: Experts warn another wave of major bank branch cuts could leave cash-reliant customers and small businesses stranded. SME & Tourism Trade: Bulawayo SME plans to expand participation at Sanganai/Hlanganani next year, highlighting how expo access can drive growth.

Energy & Cost of Living: Octopus Energy says it has saved customers £166m since the last crisis and is pushing on with cheaper tariffs, including a Wales “Tenant Power” deal cutting social housing electricity bills by about £200 a year. Workplace & Employment Law: Labour is facing pressure over a working-hours rule change and zero-hours contracts, with analysis citing 1.23m people on zero-hours and calls to protect parents from cancelled shifts. Pensions: The DWP is reaffirming the Triple Lock to protect state pension rises, after warnings that scrapping it could leave 19m people short. Security & Infrastructure: Government plans tougher penalties for damage to subsea internet cables, as European intelligence warns Russia is stepping up efforts to steal Western technology and industrial know-how. Business Restructuring: Cycling distributor Saddleback has entered administration, with all staff facing redundancy. Energy Storage Investment: Sumitomo Corporation will invest in a 694MW UK battery storage portfolio via a JV with Gresham House. Local Economy & Community: Warrington Pride parade registration opens, with businesses invited to take part in the June 13 event. Retail & Expansion: Tesco is buying former Amazon Fresh sites to grow Tesco Express in London, while other chains continue store openings nationwide. Rural Support: The Royal Countryside Fund announces a £20,000 partnership to back farm resilience work in Northern Ireland. Consumer/Small Business: A Dereham entrepreneur launches an AI pet-art website, turning pets into comic strips and posters.

AI Hiring Compliance: The ICO has closed its consultation on automated decision-making in recruitment, warning many employers using AI are effectively making decisions themselves, not just “supporting” humans, with direct letters already sent to 16 organisations. Youth Jobs Pressure: A government split is emerging over Labour’s promise to raise the minimum wage for 18-20 year-olds, as a landmark Milburn report puts youth unemployment costs at £125bn a year and flags more than a million young people out of work or training. BoE Watch: Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey says even a 60-day ceasefire in the US-Iran conflict wouldn’t justify rate cuts yet, keeping markets focused on uncertainty. Subsea Security: Ministers plan tougher penalties for negligence damaging UK subsea internet cables, aiming to deter hostile activity and close legal loopholes. Business Expansion: Ginco Food Depot opens its first physical store in Maidenhead, moving from online wholesale into bricks-and-mortar. Local Economy: Halton Business Awards shortlist is out, with 58 Widnes and Runcorn firms in the running. Retail & Crime: Police and licensing officers shut an alleged unlicensed illegal gambling operation in Manchester, arresting two people. Health Research Link-Up: The UK and France announce an AI-and-imaging partnership to speed women’s health biomedical research.

BoE Watch: Andrew Bailey said inflation may need to run above the 2% target during the Iran-war uncertainty, while warning the Bank has already “tightened” by ruling out near-term rate cuts. Mortgage Market: NatWest and Barclays cut mortgage rates by up to 0.54% and 0.43% respectively, as hopes of Middle East calm ease rate fears. Housing: HMRC data shows UK home sales jumped 53% year-on-year in April to 101,030 transactions, though stamp duty distortions still cloud the picture. Grocery Tech: Ocado and Asda agreed a long-term deal to upgrade Asda’s online operation using Ocado’s platform from 2027, aiming to regain market share. Youth Jobs Pressure: A new report warns Britain faces a “lost generation” risk, with youth NEET rates highest among Black youngsters and nearly one million aged 16-24 out of work or training. Business Compliance: A Watford firm, Bahico Limited, was named in illegal working civil penalty lists after failing right-to-work checks. Insolvencies: Redemption Brewing (100 years) and other independents have entered administration, highlighting strain on UK hospitality and brewing. Transport/Travel: Manston Airport’s reopening plans are back on track, with consultation and a revised 2029 timeline. Local Economy: HMV is set to return to Chelmsford, recruiting staff ahead of a new store at the Meadows Shopping Centre.

Youth Unemployment Alarm: Alan Milburn’s government-commissioned report warns the UK is heading for a “lost generation”, with youth NEET numbers nearing one million and potentially rising to 1.25m by the early 2030s; critics say entry-level hiring is being squeezed as costs rise and AI changes junior roles. Rail Renationalisation: GTR, the UK’s biggest train operator, moves into public ownership from Sunday, promising more frequent Gatwick–London services and tougher action on anti-social behaviour. Energy & Planning: The Treasury plans to curb judicial reviews for major wind and infrastructure projects by creating a “critical national importance” parliamentary authorisation route, aiming to speed delivery. Food Trade Deal: Labour’s UK-EU food exports agreement would remove paperwork and physical inspections for key products from summer 2027, targeting up to £5.1bn in annual economic gains. Cost Pressures Hit Hospitality: Michelin-star Simpsons in Birmingham shuts after 32 years, blaming the economy and failed sales attempts. Water Outages Disrupt Businesses: Kent households face outages during the heatwave, forcing cafes and pubs to close and raising fears for the tourist season. Northern Ireland Funding Row: Hilary Benn tells Stormont ministers to meet him “halfway” to resolve a budget dispute over a reported £1bn funding gap.

Youth Unemployment/NEET Crisis: A government-commissioned Milburn review warns Britain risks a “lost generation”, with NEETs (16-24 not in work, education or training) nearing one million now and potentially rising to 1.25m by 2031 without urgent action. SME Manufacturing Pressure: Unleashed data shows SME manufacturers’ average sales revenue fell 39% in Q1 to £252,050, with purchasing and stock down and gross margins slipping to 30.08%. Food & Drink Cost Shock: The Food and Drink Federation says 82% of manufacturers expect to raise prices and 33% plan job cuts as energy costs bite, with inflation forecast at 9-10% by December. Business Support/Deep Tech Funding: The British Business Bank pledges up to £50m to Longwall Venture Partners’ new deep tech fund to back early-stage science-to-commercialisation. Tech & Work: A Freshworks report says UK mid-market firms spend £11.7bn a year on “AI slop” corrections, with 1 in 4 hours wasted. Energy/Consumer Relief: The government has suspended tariffs on 125 “everyday essentials” until at least Dec 2028 to ease cost-of-living pressures. Telecom Sovereignty: UK authorities are expected to resist Sunil Mittal’s bid to increase his BT stake over national security and sovereign control concerns.

Youth Unemployment Alarm: Alan Milburn’s review warns the UK could hit 1.25m “Neets” by the early 2030s, with welfare spending on under-25s dwarfing employment support and ministers urged to overhaul schools, health and benefits. Construction Skills Funding: CITB published its 2026–27 business plan after clarifying levy funding allocations, aiming to boost recruitment and progression into long-term construction work. Scotland Public Procurement: Scotland Excel launched a £160m, four-year engineering and technical framework with 39 approved suppliers for councils, including many SMEs. Crime Costs Soar: A Home Office study puts the economic and social cost of crime at £78bn a year—about £148,000 a minute—up from £59bn five years ago, driven by digitally enabled fraud and wider system impacts. Cyber & Defence: GCHQ’s director warned AI is an “unstoppable force” being weaponised in hybrid cyberattacks, urging faster action by companies and government. Sanctions on Crypto Evasion: The UK rolled out new sanctions targeting Russian-linked crypto and shadow finance networks used to bypass restrictions. Business Compliance Watch: The Crime and Policing Act 2026 expands corporate criminal liability for “senior managers” across all offences, not just economic crime. Labour Market & Demographics: ONS data show births in England and Wales fell but foreign-born parents hit a record 40.2% share.

Planning Pressure on Industry: Make UK says the planning system is “not fit for purpose”, blaming complexity for delays, higher costs and deterring investment, and urging faster action through the Planning and Infrastructure Bill plus stronger strategic/mayoral powers to align land and infrastructure with industrial priorities. Energy Bills Bite Again: Ofgem’s price cap rises 13% from July 1, adding about £221 to the typical bill to £1,862 a year, with wholesale gas costs tied to Middle East conflict. E-invoicing Deadline Looms: Ahead of the 2029 mandatory e-invoicing mandate, over half of finance leaders say compliance failures have already blocked overseas expansion, warning many firms are still unready. Retail Shake-up: Radley’s rescue deal with Poundland owners means the brand keeps its name and IP—but all 21 stores are set to close, with 42 jobs cut. Payments Innovation: PingPong and Visa launch a card-to-account solution letting businesses pay suppliers by card while suppliers receive funds like a bank transfer.

Middle East Shock to Markets: Iran says the US has breached the ceasefire with new strikes near the Strait of Hormuz, where about 20% of global oil flows—yet Wall Street pushed to fresh highs as investors looked past the flare-up. Energy & Cost Pressure: The renewed risk is feeding back into oil prices and wider inflation worries, with UK households already bracing for higher bills. Labour Power Struggle: Tony Blair warns Labour against “playing with fire”, urging a “fundamental reset” and a policy-first “radical centre” approach as leadership rivals circle. Property Stress: A new Red Flag Alert study finds UK real estate firms in “critical” distress up 19.1% year-on-year, adding to the sense of strain in the sector. AI & Work Debate: OpenAI’s Sam Altman admits he was wrong about an “AI jobs apocalypse”, while UK regulators keep tightening the tech and finance screws. Business Moves: Royal London extends SS&C services for new Australian funds, while IREN targets higher AI cloud revenue after buying Dell Blackwell systems.

Cyber & Retail Trust: A new RSM UK survey warns cyber attacks are now hitting loyalty hard: 24% of shoppers say they’d stop using a brand after a data breach, with retailers already facing costly incidents. AI Governance: Separate research flags “Shadow AI” as a top risk, with senior leaders more likely to use unapproved tools than junior staff—yet many admit they’re worried about the practice. Cost Pressure at the Till: The BRC says shop price inflation edged up in May, with non-food prices rising as energy and shipping costs bite, even as food inflation eases. Hiring Worry: Next’s boss warns of a “dramatic fall” in entry-level jobs, with youth unemployment pressures set to intensify. Local Business & Crime: NFU Mutual reports 91% of rural retailers were hit by crime in the past year, with average losses of £83,000. Markets & Energy: Oil is back near $100 as investors weigh US-Iran peace-deal hopes against fresh strikes. Tech & Finance: MarketReader appoints Andrew Lane as CEO after Acuity Trading investment, while Marqeta expands account and money movement tools across more European countries.

World Cup Momentum: England’s Dani Gibson roared back after a back injury, taking 3 for 14 as hosts thrashed New Zealand by seven wickets in the final T20 at Hove, sealing a 2-1 series win. Energy & Politics: New England governors, including Ned Lamont, urged US regulators to reject a transmission profit hike that could raise bills, while the wider world watches an oil crunch risk tied to Iran tensions. Corporate Power Play: UK taxpayers’ cash is still linked to EU spending on North Korea projects, with critics pointing to £114m over decades. Retail & Crime: Morrisons is swapping sharp-pointed kitchen knives for blunt-ended versions to cut blade-crime risk, as shoplifting pressure on rural retailers hits record levels. Markets & Deals: Tate & Lyle faces a £2.7bn US takeover that could end the last original FT30 member, and Helios-backed moves around CAB Payments are drawing fresh backlash from minority investors. Public Safety: Police arrested three after a woman was shot dead outside a Sheffield bar.

BFI Skills Push: The British Film Institute is putting £11.85m into UK screen-sector training over three years, backing seven regional skills clusters to plug “below-the-line” production gaps. Markets Watch: Fresh warning signs are emerging in markets that investors say shouldn’t be ignored. Energy Bills: Households are bracing for a £200+ energy price-cap rise from July as the Iran war feeds through to costs. Defence & Shipping: Britain’s Royal Navy is preparing to clear mines in the Strait of Hormuz, but the mission still hinges on a peace agreement. Retail Reality Check: High streets may be stabilising, yet the damage since 2020 is still visible, with thousands of shops permanently lost. Labour Market Pressure: Long-term unemployment has hit a 10-year high, adding to scrutiny of Rachel Reeves’ economic approach. Tech & Work: Meta layoffs are sparking discrimination claims, while Canva says most consumers prefer human-made ads even as AI use grows. Wales Rail Boost: A new direct North Wales to Liverpool service launches for half-term, with wider timetable upgrades across the region.